Animal-to-human infections will cause 12 times more deaths than COVID by 2050, finds study

A recent study has raised concerns over the rapid rise of zoonotic diseases, which originate in animals and transmit to humans, potentially leading to a twelvefold increase in deaths by 2050 compared to 2020. In very simple words, what the study says is that pandemics like the one we had a couple of years ago, are only going to become more common, and more deadly.

Researchers conducted an extensive analysis of nearly six decades of epidemiological data, revealing a troubling trend in the escalating frequency of zoonotic disease spillover events.

Published in the journal BMJ Global Health, the study underlines the significant role played by zoonotic diseases in contemporary epidemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic, which is believed to have zoonotic origins.

These diseases can be transmitted to humans through direct animal contact, vectors like ticks and mosquitoes, habitat exposure, and consumption of contaminated food and water.

Researchers from the US biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks focused their analysis on four types of zoonotic pathogens: Filoviruses (such as Ebola and Marburg), SARS Coronavirus 1 (causing SARS), Nipah virus (linked to brain swelling), and Machupo virus (responsible for Bolivian hemorrhagic fever).

The study findings indicate that the number of spillover epidemics has been rising at an annual rate of nearly 5 per cent, with reported deaths increasing at 8.7 per cent annually. If this trend persists, it is estimated that these pathogens could trigger four times as many spillover events and lead to twelve times as many deaths in 2050 compared to 2020.

While human-induced climate change has been associated with a potential surge in zoonotic diseases, its exact impact on global health remains challenging to ascertain.

The researchers suggest that their estimates are likely conservative, as they only considered specific inclusion criteria for pathogens and did not account for the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which far exceeds the scale of previous events.

The study emphasizes the need for urgent action to address this growing global health risk.

While numerous surveillance programs and pandemic preparedness proposals have been proposed, the precise combination of measures required remains unclear, but the study underscores the pressing need to tackle this expanding threat to global health.