CNBC Daily Open: A trade war can be fought without tariffs

Trade barriers can come in many forms. Tariffs are just one. Onerous licensing requirements, export restrictions and fines on shipping are other obstacles.

Nvidia said Tuesday it would be taking a $5.5 billion charge related to canceled chip exports to China because of new licensing rules from the U.S. government. Beijing has retaliated to Trump tariffs by implementing export restrictions on rare earth elements and increasing antitrust scrutiny on U.S. firms. Donald Trump's administration has been floating the idea of imposing levies on Chinese-made containerships calling at U.S. ports.

Given those developments, the World Trade Organization warned on Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has "deteriorated sharply," and forecast a 0.2% decline in 2025. It's not mere fearmongering: Shipping vessels originating from China are already canceling their journeys.

Conditions in the stock market have likewise worsened. U.S. stocks fell Wednesday as export restrictions on Nvidia kept investors jittery. Trade — in all contexts — is getting hammered by the onslaught of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

U.S. markets rocked by renewed trade jitters
U.S. stocks slumped Wednesday, hitting session lows after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on inflation and tariffs. The S&P 500 lost 2.24% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.73%. The Nasdaq Composite sank 3.07%, weighed down by heavy declines in chip stocks amid reports of new U.S. licensing requirements for Nvidia exports. The chipmaker's shares sank 6.9%.

Asian markets break from Wall Street
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly in the green Thursday. South Korea's Kospi added around 1% as the country's central bank expectedly held its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed roughly 1.2% even as the country reported a 3.9% rise in its exports in March, missing estimates and sharply lower the 11.4% jump in February.

Tension in dual mandate
Powell on Wednesday expressed concern that the central bank "may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension." The Fed aims to ensure stable prices and full employment. Economists, including those at the Fed, see threats to both goals from Trump tariffs, which are "likely to move us further away from our goals," Powell said in a question-and-answer session.

WTO warns of world trade disorganization
"The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty," the World Trade Organization warned in its latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report out Wednesday. Based on the tariffs currently in place, and including a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025.

Freight ships from China canceling trips
U.S. importers are being notified of an increase in canceled sailings by freight ships out of China: A total of 80 blank, or canceled, sailings out of China have been recorded by freight company HLS Group. The impact of the diminished freight container traffic to North America will be significant for many links in the economy and supply chain, including the ports and logistics companies moving the freight.

TSMC earnings beat expectations
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported Thursday first-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations. The chip manufacturing company's net income increased 60.3% from a year ago to NT$361.56 billion ($11.1 billion), while net revenue in the March quarter rose 41.6% to NT$839.25 billion from the same period last year. Demand for artificial intelligence chips has boosted TSMC's fortunes, but Trump tariffs pose a threat to its future earnings.

[PRO] Still confident on dollar: Piper Sandler
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell last week to its lowest point since April 2022 amid heightened uncertainty from Trump tariffs. More alarmingly, the U.S. dollar is typically viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of volatility, so its weakening has raised concerns. Piper Sandler, however, is still confident on the currency — here's why.

China targets U.S. services and other areas as it decries ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, saying more increases by the U.S. would be a "joke," and Beijing would "ignore" them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector. Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures, such as widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies.

Additionally, China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.