Dow rises 200 points as traders try to shake off jump in Treasury yields: Live updates

Bearishness among retail investors overt the outlook for stocks across the next six months rose for a third straight week, climbing to 41.6% from 40.9% last week, according to the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. The historical average for bears is 31.0%.

But optimism also rose, increasing to 30.1% from 27.8%. Bullishness is below its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh week in eight.

The percent of those investors who told the AAII they were neutral on stocks narrowed to 28.3% from 31.3% last week.

Contrarian investors like to a surge in pessimism as a signal that market risk has declined. The past year's peak in bearishness, for example, came in mid-October 2022, when 56.2% of investors said they were pessimistic. Stocks soon began to rebound. Conversely, the S&P 500 high in 2023 came on July 31, less than two weeks after the AAII said investor bullishness reached a 52-week high of 51.4%.

— Scott Schnipper

Waning pandemic-related tailwinds for auto parts retailers will undermine sales and earnings prospects for O'Reilly Automotive, according to Oppenheimer.

The firm downgraded the stock to a perform rating from outperform, simultaneously lowering its price target to $930 from $1,000. Year to date, the stock is up 6.7%.

ORLY ytd chart

"While current Street forecasts for AZO and ORLY appear largely reasonable, we are now more hard-pressed to envision multiples for shares climbing meaningfully from current levels," analyst Brian Nagel wrote.

— Lisa Kailai Han, Michael Bloom

The stronger-than-expected September jobs data doesn't bode well for investors hoping the Federal Reserve can start cutting interest rates anytime soon, said Michelle Culver, portfolio strategist at Global X ETFs.

"Unfortunately for markets, this reading reflects there could be more the Fed needs to do to contain inflation pressures," Culver said.

"Long dated yields continued their march higher as this reading reiterated the message of yields potentially needing to remain higher for longer," she added. "While encouraging for the resilience of the U.S. economy, this exceptionally strong reading is a challenge for markets."

— Alex Harring

The stronger-than-expected jobs report was fueled by a big month for the leisure and hospitality sector as well as government hiring.

Those were the top two categories for job growth in September, both up sharply from August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The information sector, however, lost 5,000 jobs.

Read more about job growth by sector here.

— Jesse Pound

The beaten-down utilities sector isn't seeing any relief. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund is down 1.3% Friday, and has dropped nearly 20% for the year through Thursday.

The sector has been dragged down by energy and power companies AES Corp, NextEra Energy and Eversource Energy. Utilities posted large declines this week and has lost 20% year-to-date, making it this year's biggest loser so far.

Utilities are seen as bond proxies because of their high dividend yields. The stocks have been getting hit as the high rates in risk-free short-term Treasuries offer an attractive alternative to investors. U.S. Treasury yields rose again Friday, with the 10-year nearing a 16-year high after stronger-than-expected jobs data.

— Pia Singh

A controversial new eye injection that has caused a rout in Apellis stock could also more than double prices of the biopharma firm, according to JPMorgan.

The bank upgraded Apellis stock to overweight on Friday. Shares gained 4.5% Friday morning.

Apellis 1-day chart

"Indeed, we view Syfovre as a ~$3B peak potential drug, even with conservative assumptions," analyst Anupam Rama said. "With Syfovre growth largely stemming from the back half of 3Q, we see this as a tailwind heading into 4Q and 2024."

The full story is available to CNBC Pro subscribers here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

30-day fed funds futures pricing data on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggest a more than 45% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark lending rate by a quarter-point, or perhaps as much as half a point, by the end of its December policy meeting.

On Thursday, the chance of further tightening stood at just 33.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability is derived from the actions of traders in interest rate futures markets, the CME says.

— Scott Schnipper

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 5% on Friday, following another rise in bond yields spurred by a strong jobs report.

The ETF tracks U.S. Treasury's which mature in 20 years or more. TLT has slipped about roughly 13% from the start of the year, following a 33% decline in 2022.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Bond yields, meanwhile, climbed after a stronger-than-expected September jobs report, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 336,000 last month. The yield on the 30-year Treasury climbed as much as 14 basis points to 5.029, while the 10-year added 13 basis points to 4.839%.

Bond prices move inversely to yields. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

— Brian Evans

U.S. stock started Friday's trading session in the red.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 84 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

— Hakyung Kim

30-day fed funds futures pricing data on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggest a more than 45% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark lending rate by a quarter-point, or perhaps as much as half a point, by the end of its December policy meeting.

On Thursday, the chance of further tightening stood at just 33.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability is derived from the actions of traders in interest rate futures markets, the CME says.

— Scott Schnipper

The U.S. dollar index hit a high of 106.828 on Friday following the September jobs report. That was still off its high from earlier in the week, when it rose to its highest level since Nov. 23, 2022.

Meanwhile, gold fell to a low of $1,823.50, its lowest level since Mar. 9. Gold is on pace to end the week down more than 2%, which would make it its third consecutive weekly loss. Gold miners (GDX) were lower by 1.3% in premarket trading, with Coeur Mining, Eldorado Gold, Gold Fields, Newmont all falling almost 2% or greater.

— Gina Francolla, Tanaya Macheel

The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, jumped more than 1 point to trade near the 20 threshold following the jobs report.

The VIX, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, had topped the psychological level earlier this week, the first time since May, as investors grappled with surging bond yields. The index looks at prices of options on the S&P 500 to track the level of fear on Wall Street.

— Yun Li

Here are some of the names making moves in the premarket:

• Levi Strauss — Shares slipped 1.2% after the apparel maker cut its full-year sales forecast. Levi's fiscal-third quarter revenue came in below expectations, but earnings per share beat estimates.
• Philips — The stock fell 9.6% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said the Dutch health tech company's handling of its 2021 sleep apnea device recall wasn't adequate. The FDA said additional testing was necessary. Shares of rival ResMed added nearly 3%.
• Tesla — The EV maker's stock shed nearly 3% after Tesla cut the price of some Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S. The move came after the company's third-quarter vehicle production and deliveries update missed analysts' expectations.

To see more stocks moving before the bell, read the full story here.

— Michelle Fox

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 170,000, the Labor Department said Friday.

Bond yields popped and stock futures fell in reaction as the strong numbers could allow the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates.

There was some good news on the inflation front in the report, however. Average hourly earnings increase 0.2% for the month and 4.2% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 4.3%.

Though traders remained focused on the stronger-than-expected jobs figure and what that means for the Fed.

—Jeff Cox, John Melloy

Shares of Disney are set to rally as the company completes a planned Hulu buyout, according to Bernstein.

The firm initiated coverage of the stock at a buy rating on Thursday. Shares added 0.6% in premarket trading.

DIS 1-day chart

"Despite our bearish view on Linear vs. consensus, we are bullish on DIS's potential to transition to DTC [direct to consumer] at scale once combined with Hulu," wrote analyst Laurent Yoon. "We forecast DTC growth to outpace Linear decline, supporting overall growth of Media, with DTC revenue surpassing Linear revenue in 2024, and Disney becoming the undisputed #2 subscription video on demand."

CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway continued its selling streak for HP, unloading shares of the printer and PC maker for 10 straight days and reducing its stake to 9.9%, a new regulatory filing showed.

The conglomerate sold more than 3 million HP shares on Tuesday. In total, it has dumped over 23 million shares for almost $620 million, an average selling price of $26.84. After Tuesday's sales, Berkshire held 97.8 million shares, valued at $2.57 billion based on Thursday's closing price of $26.23.

Now that Berkshire's stake is below 10%, the firm isn't required to report its related stock transactions on a timely basis. We may not find out its position until mid-February, when Berkshire discloses its holdings as of December 31. Many Buffett watchers believe the Oracle of Omaha is going to exit the bet entirely.

— Yun Li, Alex Crippen

Shares of Pioneer Natural Resources rallied more than 11% in the premarket after The Wall Street Journal reported the shale driller is close to reaching a deal with Exxon Mobil to sell itself for about $60 billion. The report said, citing people familiar with the matter, that an agreement could be sealed as soon as in a few days.

Pioneer could be immediately reached for comment. Exxon said: "We do not comment on market rumors."

Pioneer rallies

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.3% in early trade, with insurance stocks adding 1.2% to lead gains as most sectors and major bourses nudged into positive territory. Food and beverage stocks bucked the trend to fall 1.6%.

— Elliot Smith

The Reserve Bank of India kept its interest rates steady at 6.5%, in line with Reuters' expectations.

"The reserve bank is concerned. We have identified high inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth," RBI Governor Shri Shaktikanta Das said in the monetary policy statement conference.

India's August retail inflation came in at 6.83% year-on-year as food inflation persists.

"Our monetary policy remains resolutely focused on aligning inflation to the 4% target on a durable basis," he said.

—Lee Ying Shan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose more than 2% in early trading, leading wider gains in the region, boosted by financials and technology stocks.

Index heavyweights are in the green. Hong Kong-listed shares of Alibaba are trading 2.27% higher. Meituan is up 3.02% and Tencent's shares are up 2.4%.

Shares of banks ICBC and HSBC also rose 2.78% and 1.97%, respectively. Ping An rose 2.48%.

Other winners also include energy companies. ENN Energy Holdings saw a 4.14% lift, and Hong Kong and China Gas is up 3.36%.

—Lee Ying Shan

This week's spike in Treasury yields and the ensuing selloff in stocks doesn't look great for balanced portfolios – but that doesn't necessarily mean the model is broken.

The iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR), which is based on an allocation of 60% to equities and 40% to fixed income, is on pace for a 1.6% loss for the week as both asset classes saw price declines. The episode was reminiscent of last year when stocks and bonds suffered losses, and AOR returned -15.6%.

"It's hard to conclude that just because of some recent trading action that those models aren't useful," said Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist for Ned Davis Research. "Does it mean those models don't work? Not necessarily."

He noted that in an environment when bonds are closer to fair value on a longer-term basis, they should offer some diversification benefits in a 60/40 portfolio.

Read more here.

-Darla Mercado

Recent strike activity from the United Auto Workers and the Writers Guild of America are unlikely to have a measurable impact on the September payrolls report due Friday, according to Vanguard's chief global economist Joe Davis.

Leaders of the Hollywood writers' union ended the strike on Sept. 27 after a nearly-150 day work stoppage, while the UAW's strike has been ongoing since Sept. 15.

In all, Davis is calling for the economy to have added 145,000 jobs in September. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate some 170,000 payrolls were added in the period.

"Our below-consensus forecast stems primarily from labor supply headwinds," he said.

He is also calling for average earnings growth of 0.3% from the prior month and 4.3% from the prior year.

"We expect September's employment report will show a continued moderation in job growth, while affirming that wage growth is not yet on a secure downward trajectory to the Fed's ~3% comfort level," Davis said.

-Darla Mercado

The Topix Index in Japan is ahead 20% in 2023, excluding reinvested dividends. The Nikkei 225 has gained more than 19%. But a report out Thursday by Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo fund managers said stocks there are still a "compelling" opportunity.

"Improving fundamentals and governance reforms are increasingly evident" in the world's third largest economy, said Drew Edwards and Rick Friedman. "EPS growth has been relatively strong in Japan for years, distributions of excess capital have increased, and policymakers continue to push for more competitive and capital-efficient companies."

Still, with the Japanese yen tumbling about 17% since mid-January against the dollar, recently touching 150 yen, iShares MSCI Japan ETF, the largest Japanese ETF in the U.S. with more than $13 billion in assets, is trailing the benchmark stock indexes there. The EWJ is about 7.5% higher in 2023, but would be helped if the dollar weakened.

Nikkei 225 in 2023.

Levi Strauss & Co. shares slid about 1% in extended trading after the maker of denim jeans on Thursday reported weaker-than-expected revenue in its third quarter, and issued lackluster guidance.

Levi Strauss reported adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share, slightly lower than the 27 cents per share anticipated by analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue came in at $1.51 billion, weaker than estimates of $1.54 billion.

For the fiscal year, the clothing company anticipates per-share earnings in the low end of its previously guided range of $1.10 to 1.20, while analysts expected $1.11, according to consensus estimates. The revenue outlook was flat to 1%, lower than prior guidance of 1.5% to 2.5%.

"We have commenced an initiative to review our operating model and cost structure that should drive agility and material cost savings beginning in 2024," said Harmit Singh, chief financial and growth officer of Levi Strauss.

Levi

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for its third straight losing week, while the S&P 500 is on pace for its fifth. Here are where the major averages stand week to date:

• The Dow is lower by 1.16%
• The S&P 500 is down by 0.7%
• The Nasdaq Composite is about flat

— Sarah Min