BRUSSELS — Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is an early favorite to take over as NATO chief after he signaled interest over the weekend — but he's going to have to overcome his country's patchy record of defense spending as well as his own sex to snag the job.
Governments have so far been officially mum about a Rutte candidacy, but three senior European officials, granted anonymity to speak freely, said he's expected to garner wide support. One of them predicted he'll be backed by the eastern flank countries, for whom the top issue is a candidate's stance on Russia and Ukraine.
"Rutte brings the advantage of being a very experienced politician from a country that has traditionally been a transmission belt between Anglo-Saxon and Continental Europe views. He could be seen by larger [NATO] member states as a good compromise solution," said Ben Schreer, executive director of the Berlin office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
However, getting the top alliance job is a matter of back-room deals and lobbying to gain the unanimous backing of all 31 members — which doesn't always favor early candidates.
The NATO chief also needs to get the nod from the United States, the alliance's most important member. For now, Rutte is drawing a bit of a blank among Washington lawmakers.
"I may have met him, but I don’t recall," said Republican Senator Mitt Romney. Another key Republican, Senator Lindsey Graham, said: “I don’t know him. Doesn’t ring a bell.”
Democrats aren't much better informed.
"I do not know him. I have heard his name floated but beyond that I haven't heard anything else," said Senator Jeanne Shaheen. “I'm interested in the whole range of people who might be considered.”
Senate Foreign Relations Chair Ben Cardin is one who does know Rutte, saying he has "a good deal of respect for him," but adding: "I’ve not talked to him recently. Everything I know about him is positive."
Apart from having a long political track record of guiding NATO through Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, another important consideration is Rutte's experience in handling Donald Trump, in case the former president makes a comeback in next year's U.S. elections.
"Rutte was already there when Trump was around, so that helps," said one of the officials.
Rutte, a 56-year-old Dutchman who's been running the EU's fifth-largest economy for 13 years, has long been rumored to be interested in jumping to NATO given that his career in national politics will end after the country's November 22 general election. On Sunday, he opened up about his ambition in an interview with radio station Den Haag FM, saying the job of secretary-general "would be interesting as it would offer the chance to contribute for a few years on the international stage in a period of dramatic global changes."
This was followed by a phone call on Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Rutte hailed the status of the Netherlands as the first non-G7 country to negotiate bilateral security commitments with Kyiv — a step agreed during the NATO leaders' summit in July.
His government has carefully positioned itself as one of Ukraine's most reliable partners.
When U.S. President Joe Biden's administration first appeared lukewarm about training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, the Netherlands took the lead in July — alongside Denmark — in setting up a training center in Romania and potentially transferring the high-end aircraft to Kyiv. It took the U.S. until October to finally agree to co-lead the initiative.
"Thank you also for the decision regarding the aircraft. They will help us control the sky," Zelenskyy told Rutte.
Ditching Moscow
It's all been part of a steady drift away from Russia for Rutte, who in 2011 stood cheerfully next to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel in unveiling the Nord Stream pipeline project (since blown up) to send Russian gas west to the EU.
Although the Netherlands continued buying Russian pipeline gas until it was cut off by Gazprom in May last year, Rutte has been gradually shifting into the Russia-skeptic camp — a dynamic accelerated by the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine by Russia-backed separatists, which killed 198 Dutch citizens.
"Since 2014 we have become all too familiar with the pattern of obstruction, untruths and injustice from Russia and its president, Putin,” Rutte said earlier this year after a two former Russian intelligence agents and a Ukrainian separatist leader were convicted of murder in a Dutch court for their involvement in the MH17 incident.
"He was never a Russia hawk. But he has developed into a very staunch supporter of Ukraine," said Rem Korteweg, senior research fellow at Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank.
The Dutch prime minister has also burnished his transatlantic credentials by teaming up with the Biden administration in rolling out what is effectively an export ban against China on advanced semiconductor-making equipment — even though the decision circumvented the (slower) path of EU policymaking and angered Dutch microchip giant ASML.
Trump and 2 percent
The most important assignment for Stoltenberg's successor, however, would be managing another Trump presidency. During Trump's first term, U.S.-Dutch relations were relatively stable, and Rutte even lambasted his country's “white wine-sipping elites" for criticizing Trump and his jabs at international organizations like the EU and NATO.
That will be a much tougher act to repeat in any second presidency, as Trump is reportedly mulling pulling the U.S. out of NATO if he gets back into the White House.
Trump fiercely criticized NATO countries for spending too little on defense and free-riding on the U.S. The Netherlands was one of the worst offenders: In 2014 it spent only 1.14 percent of its GDP on defense, while the alliance has a 2 percent spending goal. This year, The Hague will spend 1.7 percent of GDP and has agreed to spend 2.03 percent in 2024 and 2.01 percent in 2025.
"[Rutte's] main problem is going to be his record on defense spending," a European official said. "He sat at the 2014 [NATO] Summit table in Wales when the defense spending pledge was agreed to, and has been PM since. But he didn't fulfil that obligation."
Immutable characteristics
A less surmountable obstacle for Rutte is his sex. Since its creation in 1949, NATO has always been run by a man. And Rutte, if he gets the job, would be the fourth Dutch man in the post, trumping all other nationalities.
"There is a very big chance, given the political support for it, that this job will go to a European woman," Rutte said in the radio interview. "Which would also be very good."
So far, the other female candidates face headwinds.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is one of the world's leading voices on supporting Ukraine, but some in Western Europe and the U.S. believe that a Baltic head of NATO would be too provocative for Moscow.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is another rumored candidate, though some NATO countries are leery of appointing a third Nordic secretary-general in a row following Stoltenberg and fellow Dane Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
France, on the other hand, has made it clear that the next leader should be from the European Union, vetoing heavyweights like Canada's Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is of Ukrainian descent, as well as former British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
Still potentially in the mix is European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, although she's currently gunning for another term in the EU's top job.
All these considerations, for now, leave Rutte in a comfortable position in the race — although muted concerns abide.
Korteweg noted Rutte's ability to cooperate with different parties in successive Dutch coalition governments, as well as with other EU leaders and with different occupants of the White House.
"He has a great knack for working well with everyone," he said, before adding the caveat that "though this seems like a very positive characteristic, this may also be his biggest downside."
"He won't bang his fist on the table, and intimidate others to follow his position. He himself has said that he lacks vision, and he is not a deep thinker about Europe ... [Rutte] will be acceptable to many, but the question is whether he will be really the force multiplier that NATO needs right now."
Anthony Adragna contributed reporting from Washington.
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