Healthy Returns: New weight loss drug data show Eli Lilly is gaining ground

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Competition in the blockbuster weight loss drug market is ramping up, as drugmakers share fresh data on new and existing treatments. 

The annual American Diabetes Association conference in Chicago showcased results on obesity injections, pills and other therapies this past weekend. Companies big and small are vying for a slice of the weight loss drug space – and for good reason. 

Some analysts estimate the market could be worth more than $150 billion a year by the end of the decade. While I didn't attend the conference in person this year, I've rounded up some highlights: 

Eli Lilly steals the show – Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after the company's experimental pill, orforglipron, helped patients lose weight without serious side effects in a late-stage clinical trial. 

The highest dose helped patients with Type 2 diabetes lose 7.6% of their body weight during the 40-week study, with no signs of liver damage in those who took the daily treatment. Eli Lilly, which released initial data from the study in April, will unveil results from a separate trial on obese or overweight patients without diabetes later this year. The company plans to launch the pill next year. 

The drugmaker also teased the future of its portfolio, showcasing treatments that "could further extend Lilly's dominance in the space," BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said in a note on Sunday. 

Another experimental Eli Lilly drug, bimagrumab, helped preserve lean muscle mass and drive greater fat loss in patients taking the popular obesity treatment Wegovy from Novo Nordisk in a mid-stage trial. 

The therapy appears to offer a potential solution to a problem that has emerged with existing weight loss injections. Some doctors are concerned that patients may be losing too much lean muscle mass while taking the shots, particularly older adults who can be more frail. 

Eli Lilly is now running additional studies of the drug in combination with its own weight loss injection, Zepbound, Ken Custer, president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, told CNBC. 

"We think we can get even better [results] on top of tirzepatide," Custer said, referring to the active ingredient in Zepbound. 

Another experimental therapy from Eli Lilly also helped patients shed pounds with few side effects in a small study, impressing analysts. The drug, called eloralintide, is part of a class of drugs that mimic the hormone amylin, which slows down digestion and makes people feel fuller for longer. 

Novo Nordisk scrambles to catch up – As Eli Lilly tries to maintain or grow its edge in the weight loss drug market, chief rival Novo Nordisk released full results from late-stage trials on its experimental weekly injection, CagriSema. 

Investors hammered the company's stock in December after preliminary trial results showed CagriSema had missed its target of 25% average weight loss, with less than half of the patients hitting that goal. 

But the full results show that patients lost significant weight, even if they chose to stick with a lower dose of the treatment. The studies allowed patients to stop at lower doses if they wanted to manage side effects or if they were already losing enough weight. 

The full data at the conference also highlighted a "relatively clean safety profile" for CagriSema, Seigerman said in a separate note on Monday. The drug had similar side effects to Wegovy despite delivering more weight loss. 

CagriSema is a combination of cagrilintide – which mimics amylin –  and semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk also released data from a pair of early trials on another experimental drug called amycretin. 

The drug helped patients lose as much as 24.3% of their weight after 36 weeks, and also showed signs of improving blood sugar levels with side effects generally in line with other obesity medicines. 

The treatment mimics the same gut hormone as Wegovy to tamp down appetite and regulate blood sugar, but also combines it with amylin. 

The companies plan to advance both injectable and oral versions of amycretin into late-stage trials for weight management, Novo Nordisk said in a release. 

Amgen outlines next steps for obesity injection – As Amgen tries to make waves in the two-company race, it needs to improve on results from late-stage trials on its experimental monthly weight loss injection, Seigerman said in a separate note on Monday. 

Amgen has laid out its plan for the weight loss market, which is based on results it presented on two trials at the conference. 

The company said its drug, MariTide, led to significant weight loss but high rates of side effects and discontinuations in a mid-stage trial. Amgen released initial data from that trial back in November. 

Rates of patients who discontinued the drug due to side effects were high, ranging from 10% to 29% within different groups that took it. Rates of vomiting ranged from 43% to 92%. Groups of patients that gradually increased dosage had lower rates of discontinuations and vomiting than those who did not. 

However, a smaller phase one study showed that starting patients on lower doses of MariTide and using more gradual dose escalation improved how well they tolerated the drug. The two groups with the lowest starting initial doses experienced rates of vomiting of around 23% and 24%, and there were no discontinuations due to side effects. 

"Lower starting doses and more steps helps patients," Jay Bradner, executive vice president of research and development at Amgen, told CNBC. 

He added that MariTide's side effects are "short-lived," and that the data informed the design of Amgen's 72-week phase three trials on the drug. The company is using lower starting doses and three steps of dose escalation over an eight-week period in those studies. By week eight, patients will reach one of three different target doses of MariTide. 

"What we achieve by dose escalation is to allow the brain to tolerate the next step of doses," Bradner said, noting that it's a strategy used with Wegovy and Zepbound. 

But MariTide may have an advantage over those rival treatments since it will use fewer steps and increase doses over a shorter period of time, he said. 

In a note on Monday, Jefferies analysts said they believe the phase three data will come in "better than expectations." They said the key takeaway is that Amgen's lower and slower dosing plan will significantly improve side effects and lower discontinuations, and "might even further boost efficacy" in the trials if patients stay on the drug and experience its full effects. 

At the end of the year, Amgen will also have data on patients who took MariTide every quarter, according to Bradner. 

Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data to Annika at [email protected].

The investments just keep pouring in. 

Abridge on Tuesday announced it closed a $300 million funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz, with participation from Khosla Ventures. The round comes just months after the startup raised another $250 million in fresh capital earlier this year. 

Founded in 2018, Abridge uses artificial intelligence to draft clinical notes in real time as doctors consensually record their visits with patients. The startup is part of a market that has exploded as health-care executives search for solutions to help reduce staff burnout and daunting administrative workloads. 

Abridge has now raised nearly $818 million, according to PitchBook, and it partners with more than 150 health systems across the U.S. The company earned a spot on CNBC's Disruptor 50 list this year.

"It's a privilege, ultimately, to continue to create the impact that we want to continue to have for clinicians, patients and other members of the healthcare ecosystem," Julia Chou, Abridge's chief operating officer, told CNBC in an interview.  

Chou said that Abridge's fresh capital will help the company to push beyond traditional clinical notes. The startup is working to embed relevant revenue cycle information into its product, for instance, which would help make the documentation more compliant and alleviate downstream workflows. 

Abridge is not the only AI documentation startup that's thinking about health-care billing. 

Another AI scribing startup, Ambience Healthcare, has also been exploring applications around revenue cycle management. The company announced a new medical coding model in May that can listen to patient encounters and identify ICD-10 codes, which are internationally standardized classifications for different diseases and conditions.

Ambience has raised more than $100 million from investors including Kleiner Perkins, Andreessen Horowitz and the OpenAI Startup Fund, according to PitchBook. The company is seeking fresh capital at a valuation of over $1 billion, according to a report from The Information. 

AI scribing companies' push into billing could help them market their products to cash-strapped health systems as true revenue drivers, and not just time-saving tools.

Abridge says it is just getting started. 

"AI is coming to the doctor's office," Chou said. "The aspiration is for it to make your visits feel really human again."

Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data to Ashley at [email protected].