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Given the way they had started the 2023 World Cup, not many would have expected New Zealand to find themselves in a spot of bother eight matches later. But now, with three of the four semi-final slots filled, there’s only one slot up for grabs and that is going to be a three-way battle, between New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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The Kiwis face a litmus test against already-eliminated Sri Lanka in Bengaluru on Thursday, but the eyes will be on the weather, with 60 per cent chance of rain predicted.
Having said that, Pakistan’s victory over the Black Caps just a few days back at the Chinnaswamy Stadium came during a rain-affected contest. If the weather forecast is to go by, things won’t be any different on Thursday.
New Zealand skipper Kane Williamson, however, said that his team’s focus remained on playing the game while adding that the weather was uncontrollable.
“We can’t control the weather. There may be a thought in the back of your mind, but at the end of the day, our focus is on the cricket,” Williamson said during a press conference on Wednesday.
So, why is New Zealand’s clash against Sri Lanka a must-win encounter?
Ever since their last win in the World Cup against Afghanistan on 18 October, New Zealand have gone on to lose four matches on the trot.
They have suffered defeats to India, Australia , South Africa and Pakistan, and should the Kiwis lose to Sri Lanka, the 2019 runners-up could be in danger of missing out on the semi-finals.
New Zealand are in a tough spot as far as their qualification hopes are concerned. It’s as if they have no option but to win this contest.
The have the best NRR among all the teams and a win should seem them through to semis even if they remain levelled on points with Pakistan and Afghansitan.
Should New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka, in order to have the best hopes of qualification, they must hope that Pakistan (vs England on 11 November) and Afghanistan (vs South Africa on 10 November) also lose their remaining games. Should this happen, then all three teams would end up on eight points, and it would be then up to the Net Run Rate (NRR) to decide who goes through.
Similar would be the case if New Zealand’s game against Sri Lanka is washed out due to rain. In such a scenario, the Kiwis would have nine points from as many games, but would hope Pakistan and Afghanistan lose. Should the Kiwis’ game be washed out, and either Afghanistan or Pakistan win (Or both win), then the Kiwis will stand eliminated.
Bowling worries for Kiwis
While the rise of Rachin Ravindra and the consistency of skipper Kane Williamson have been the positives for New Zealand, it’s their bowling that has been a cause for concern.
New Zealand’s new ball pair of Trent Boult and Tim Southee have looked off-colour despite taking wickets, whereas Lockie Ferguson’s Achilles injury was a huge blow in their games against South Africa and Pakistan.
Ferguson has taken eight wickets from five games and looks set to return for the Sri Lanka contest.
According to Williamson, Ferguson helps balance the Kiwis’ bowling attack.
“He (Ferguson) balances out our attack nicely and made some really valuable contributions in the tournament and brings a bit of experience as well,” Williamson said.
And losing Matt Henry for the rest of the tournament has not helped their case either. Hamstring suffered a hamstring injury midway through the game against South Africa and had to withdraw from that contest.
Kyle Jamieson has been roped in as Henry’s replacement, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old will get a game.
Not all is lost for Sri Lanka despite being eliminated from the World Cup. They are still fighting for a spot in the 2025 Champions Trophy, but New Zealand would pose a challenge, especially for a team coming on from a dramatic defeat to Bangladesh in their previous match.
Squads:
New Zealand: Kane Williamson (c), Trent Boult, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Kyle Jamieson, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Jimmy Neesham, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mitch Santner, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Will Young.
Sri Lanka: Kusal Mendis (c), Kusal Perera, Pathum Nissanka, Dushmantha Chameera, Dimuth Karunaratne, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Charith Asalanka, Dhananjaya de Silva, Maheesh Theekshana, Dunith Wellalage, Kasun Rajitha, Angelo Mathews, Dilshan Madushanka, Dushan Hemantha, Chamika Karunaratne.
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