US Election 2024: Trump surpasses Harris for the first time, poll shows

Republican

presidential candidate

Donald

Trump

on Sunday surpassed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for the first time this cycle.
The forecast indicates that Trump has a 52% chance of winning the presidency, while

Harris

stands at 42%.
Since late August, the model had consistently favored Harris, with her chances hovering around 54-56%, while Trump held about 44-46%.

However, in early October, the gap began to close, and the candidates are now nearly even.
This shift in the forecast aligns with Trump's improved polling averages in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously leaned toward Harris. Trump already had a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Of the seven critical

swing states

in 2024, Pennsylvania is the only one where Harris still leads, according to

The Hill

report.
The US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, with

early voting

already underway in states like Georgia, California, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama. The elected candidate will begin their four-year term in the White House starting from the inauguration on January 20, 2025.