2024 Presidential Election
By Steven Shepard | March 20, 2023, 4:00 a.m. EDT | Updated Dec. 14, 2023, 9:53 a.m. EST
The race for the GOP presidential nomination has a set of historic firsts: a criminally indicted former president seeking an Oval Office comeback, a vice president who refused to go along with a plot to steal the last election, the most politically accomplished woman ever to run as a Republican — and an already-popular governor waiting in the wings.
Who ultimately wins out will take on President Joe Biden — and potentially secure the White House.
There are also other candidates and would-be candidates, too. We've put the entire field into three categories — based roughly on their chances to capture the nod — along with full scouting reports for everything that could go right or wrong along the road to the 2024 convention in Milwaukee.
The most likely nominee(s). The Favorites have established major campaign infrastructure — plenty of money, staff in key states, outside groups ready to bombard the airwaves with advertising — built broad coalitions in polling and garnered endorsements from party leaders.
The former president — who has refused to accept his 2020 defeat — is seeking to become only the second man in history to return to the Oval Office after his ouster.
🏆 Winning path
Trump remains popular among the Republican base despite numerous scandals and the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol that punctuated his turbulent presidency. His false claim that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election has given his comeback bid a patina of grievance to add to his appeal to return to the policies of his administration. With only a few exceptions, Trump's likely rivals have refrained from criticizing his time in office or behavior outside of it, even after four separate criminal indictments.
❌ Losing path
Trump fatigue. Trump has dominated American politics — in both parties — since he first became a candidate in 2015. Unlike his first campaign, when the field against him was split, Trump could face a single competitor who serves as a counterweight in DeSantis. And legal jeopardy on multiple fronts could convince enough GOP primary voters to turn the page and look to the future, even if they like Trump and his record as president.
In the ballgame, but not top-tier candidates. The Contenders are running credible campaigns, with enough money and staff to be competitive, but haven’t gained as much traction. Still, a Contender has enough support in a key early state or among a segment of the GOP electorate to build upon as the primaries approach — or potentially play king- (or queen-) maker down the road.
Once a Trump ally, the former New Jersey governor wants to be the field's leading (and loudest) critic of the former president.
🏆 Winning path
A successful Christie campaign probably hinges on Republican primary voters making a hard turn on the Trump era. He is clearly hoping to engineer that himself, by attacking the former president directly and clearing the path for an alternative. Christie did effectively end Marco Rubio's 2016 campaign on the debate stage, but Trump commands a much more loyal base.
❌ Losing path
In 2012, Christie seemed to to have a real shot at the nomination during his first term as governor — but he missed his moment when he decided not to run. By the 2016 race, he was unpopular at home and never gained traction. This time, it's dubious whether GOP primary voters want to hear Christie's version of truth-telling about Trump's conduct and personality.
Since his election as Florida's governor in 2018, DeSantis has positioned himself as a national figure by championing far-right causes — and successfully turned the nation's largest swing state a distinct shade of red.
🏆 Winning path
DeSantis doesn’t want to be the anti-Trump, but rather a more effective (and less scandalous) continuation of the former president’s political movement. By the numbers, it could be a winning primary coalition to combine Trump fans with loyal Republicans who are skeptical about a third straight Trump nomination. But it requires DeSantis to go at Trump directly — without alienating too many of his supporters — and position himself as a more electable alternative.
❌ Losing path
His post-launch struggles have exposed some of his liabilities: There’s the perception that he’s an awkward campaigner, and his efforts to sell Trump Lite to voters who want the full-calorie version have fizzled so far. Trump has attacked him from the left on abortion and entitlements, a strategy meant to undermine DeSantis’ electability arguments.
Haley combines executive experience, foreign policy chops, a tie to Trump’s administration, home-field-advantage in an early state and a historic candidacy.
🏆 Winning path
As the alternative to a months-long Trump-DeSantis food fight. A win in South Carolina’s primary — fourth after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada— would go a long way to vaulting Haley into the top tier. Already, Haley is the most politically accomplished woman — as a twice-elected governor and cabinet member — to enter a Republican presidential primary field. Despite the gender gap between the parties, women make up nearly half of the GOP primary electorate.
❌ Losing path
Like all of the candidates below the top tier, Haley risks getting drowned out in a primary where Trump and DeSantis suck up most of the oxygen. And Haley’s seemingly shifting views of Trump after the Jan. 6 riot threaten her credibility in taking on her former boss.
The investor and former pharmaceutical company CEO is running an outsider campaign based largely on a critique of “wokeness” among corporations and other institutions.
🏆 Winning path
A relentless earned-media campaign has vaulted Ramaswamy up the standings. Actually winning the nomination is another story, but thus far Ramaswamy has done what it takes to get a 38-year-old, first-time candidate into contention.
❌ Losing path
All attention has been good attention for Ramaswamy thus far, but he is campaigning as a Trump heir apparent, not a rival.
The former vice president ended his campaign more than two months before the Iowa caucuses.
The early-state senator was a favorite of the party’s donor class but fell behind his fellow South Carolinian, Nikki Haley.
The 2016 runner-up is foregoing another campaign, instead choosing to seek a third term in the Senate.
Not a factor — at least not yet. The Long Shots barely register in polling, nationally and in the early states. There’s always the possibility of catching fire, especially in one of the early states, to propel you into the next tier. But there’s an even greater likelihood of an ignominious, early dropout.
A Dallas-area businessman and non-denominational pastor, Binkley is concentrating his early efforts in Iowa, where he went up with TV ads in early May 2023.
🏆 Winning path
Binkley's opening ad hit inspirational notes, promising to renew a country that is "strong, unified and reconciled to God and each other."
❌ Losing path
A first-time candidate with little national profile, Binkley is betting big on an Iowa-first strategy that could easily flame out. He hasn’t come close to qualifying for the debates so far.
After a lengthy career in public office — as a U.S. attorney, congressman (and Bill Clinton impeachment manager), DEA administrator and two-term Arkansas governor — Hutchinson says he’s mounting an underdog presidential bid.
🏆 Winning path
Hutchinson has expressed misgivings about the GOP’s direction during the Trump era, but selling a return to the conservativism of the 1990s and 2000s is an uphill climb. He says Trump should drop out of the race following his multiple criminal indictments — far from a majority opinion in the party.
❌ Losing path
He could end up like two of Trump’s 2016 rivals — former New York Gov. George Pataki or another former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee — who barely register after their political moments have already passed them by.
Abbott was just elected to a third term as Texas governor and has been one of Republicans’ top fundraisers anywhere in the country.
Since being hailed as the potential future of the GOP eight years ago, Rubio has been eclipsed by a fellow Floridian in DeSantis.
The term-limited Virginia governor is sometimes floated as an electable conservative candidate.
Burgum made the first two debates through a mostly self-funded effort, along with a well-heeled super PAC. But his technocratic campaign never gained traction.
The former conservative media personality, who first took the plunge when he campaigned to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a failed 2021 recall effort, never caught on as a presidential hopeful.
The former Texas congressman failed to gain traction. He endorsed Nikki Haley after dropping out in early October.
The self-funding “quality guru” suspended his campaign after failing to gain traction or qualify for the RNC debates.
The Miami mayor ended his campaign after failing to qualify for the first debate.
The Arkansas senator said in November 2022 he wouldn’t run for president.
The former Maryland governor — one of Trump’s top GOP critics — chose not to enter the race.
After a monthslong flirtation, Trump’s former CIA director and secretary of state announced in April that "the time is not right" for him to launch a presidential campaign in 2024.
Rogers is instead running to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan.
After an eventful four years in the Senate — including a fruitless cycle as NRSC chairman and an unsuccessful effort to topple Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — Scott chose a bid for a second term over a presidential campaign.
The popular governor of the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire made the rounds in the national media, dismissing Trump as the GOP’s leader, before announcing he wouldn't run.
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