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A resurgent Australia face one of the toughest assignments of their ICC World Cup campaign so far when they face New Zealand at Dharamsala’s HPCA Stadium on Saturday.
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It will be a day encounter taking place at the picturesque venue, with the upcoming contest between the Trans-Tasman rivals the first match of the Saturday double-header.
Australia are on the rise after getting their World Cup campaign off to a forgettable start. They started off with losses against India and South Africa, stretching their run of defeats in the World Cup to four matches (they lost to South Africa and England in their last two games in 2019).
The Pat Cummins-led side, however, have been a different unit since those two defeats, collecting their first points of the campaign with a five-wicket win against Sri Lanka and handing Babar Azam’s Pakistan a 62-run loss in a high-scoring affair. They would then truly underline their credentials as five-time world champions with a 309-run demolition of Netherlands in Delhi in their most recent encounter.
Read | Stunning stats from Australia’s massive win over Netherlands
New Zealand, meanwhile, have been among the most consistent sides in the tournament so far and were one of the only two remaining unbeaten teams until suffering a four-wicket defeat against hosts India in Dharamsala in their most recent fixture.
All four of their victories before the India defeat were one-sided results, including a nine-wicket drubbing of defending champions England in the tournament opener in Ahmedabad, and the Black Caps certainly have appeared the kind of side that can make a fifth consecutive semi-final appearance, or possibly even a third consecutive final.
Both Australia and New Zealand have excellent Net Run Rates of +1.481 and +1.142 respectively, with the Aussies catching up with the likes of India, South Africa besides their Kiwi neighbours thanks to their massive victory over Netherlands, and both sides appear among the strong contenders to finish among the top four at the end of the group stage.
Here’s a detailed look at the possible scenarios for both Australia and New Zealand as far as the semi-finals are concerned (not taking into account the possibility of washouts, the chances of which appear slim):
Win all four remaining games: Four wins in as many outings, including against the Black Caps on Saturday, will give the Aussies seven wins and two defeats, and allow them to finish with 14 points on the board. New Zealand, on the other hand, will do even better with four consecutive wins from here on, finishing with eight wins in nine matches and 18 points on the board.
In both scenarios, the the team collecting four wins on the trot should finish not just in the top four and qualify for the semis, but possibly among the top two.
Win three out of four matches: New Zealand and Australia finish with 14 and 12 points respectively. In New Zealand’s case, it might still be enough for them to secure a top-two finish. Australia, after all, had finished with 14 points at the second spot in the 2019 edition, losing their final group fixture against South Africa before getting outplayed by England in the second semi-final in Birmingham.
As for the present-day Aussies, they should very much remain in the hunt for a top-four finish.
Win two, lose two: Thanks to their consistent run so far New Zealand remain well in contention for a top-four finish even if they endure a mixed run in the remainder of their campaign with two wins and as many defeats. They’ll finish with 12 points on the board, the same as England in 2019, with Eoin Morgan’s men finishing at the third spot on the 10-team table with six wins and three defeats. And we know how their campaign ended.
For Australia, however, two defeats in as many outings will result in them collecting a maximum of 10 points. Qualifying for the knockouts will be a tough ask with that kind of run, and the Aussies will need other results to go their way.
Win one out of four/Lose four in a row: In either case, it will be goodbye for the Aussies and their hopes of making the semis for the third time in a row will certainly come to an end.
For the Black Caps, four consecutive defeats will likely spell the end of their campaign as well. Making they will finish with a total of eight points — Pakistan had snuck into the semis with nine points in the 1992 edition before going on to win the tournament in style. That tournament had one team less than the 2019 and the current edition.
Just one win in their remaining matches will allow New Zealand to finish with 10 points on the board. It will be difficult for them, but certainly not impossible.
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